Immigration

Immigration & Borders

Net Migration

204k (from 944k peak)

Asylum Backlog

70,532 cases

Removals

3% of boat arrivals

Overview Full Research Analysis→ View in Graph

48%Current

Potential: 75%

✗Key Problems

1.78% non-EU, concentrated in sectors with low productivity growth
2.Only 3% of small boat arrivals removed - enforcement system failing
3.10,800 millionaires left in 2024 - net talent outflow accelerating
4.90,000+ Brits emigrating yearly - losing skilled workers to competitors

✓Solutions

1.POINTS-BASED CAP at 100K/year: Explicit target (Australia model)
2.STREAMLINED RETURNS within 90 days: Fast-track removals (Canada model)
3.ENGLISH PROFICIENCY (B2): Integration requirement (Netherlands model)
4.BILATERAL AGREEMENTS: Returns deals with source countries (Rwanda/Albania precedents)

Analysis

Root Causes

78% non-EU, concentrated in sectors with low productivity growth

Only 3% of small boat arrivals removed - enforcement system failing

10,800 millionaires left in 2024 - net talent outflow accelerating

90,000+ Brits emigrating yearly - losing skilled workers to competitors

Reform Pathway

POINTS-BASED CAP at 100K/year: Explicit target (Australia model)

STREAMLINED RETURNS within 90 days: Fast-track removals (Canada model)

ENGLISH PROFICIENCY (B2): Integration requirement (Netherlands model)

BILATERAL AGREEMENTS: Returns deals with source countries (Rwanda/Albania precedents)

Cascade Effects

Reforms in Immigration & Borders will have downstream effects on 6 connected domains:

Housing→Health→Cohesion→Fiscal→Wages→Justice→

Read Full Research Analysis (Root Causes, Stakeholders, Evidence, Timeline)→

Policy Costings

Rigorous fiscal analysis of Immigration & Borders reforms

View All Costings →

CONTESTED ESTIMATE

Significant methodological disputes. View caveats below.

Immigration

Immigration Points Overhaul

Upfront

+£350m

Annual

-£2.5bn

Revenue

+£8.5bn

Net Annual Effect

+£6.0bn/year

Payback in 3 years

GDP +1.8%Productivity +0.25%very high uncertainty

UNCERTAINTY RANGE (Annual Net Effect)

Most Pessimistic

£0m

⟷

Most Optimistic

+£20.0bn

MAJOR CAVEATS

•Track record: UK net migration hit record 900k+ despite claiming "control" - selection system not working
•Points systems require enforcement: Australia deports overstayers, UK does not
•Low-skill shortage claims contested: wages in social care/agriculture suppressed by cheap labour availability
•Net fiscal contribution varies enormously by origin, skill level, and time horizon - averages mislead
•Family reunion and asylum are separate from economic migration - conflating them confuses policy
•Housing/infrastructure constraints may limit absorption capacity regardless of skill level

3 sources